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Use a hypothetical analyst prompt
The interviewer supplies current underlying 100, states 130/80, factor 1.05 and a strike-100 call. They ask whether the 50% pricing weight means an observed 50% chance of reaching the higher state.
Reconstruct the known result
The call pays 30/0. Pricing weight is (105−80)/50=0.5 and discounted model value 15/1.05=14.285714. The replica uses 0.6 underlying units and current cash −48/1.05, matching both claim amounts.
Name the missing evidence
| Requested claim | Needed evidence |
|---|---|
| Actual branch likelihood | A forecast or observational model |
| Real execution cost | Trading and financing constraints |
| More complex contract | Income, exercise and additional states |
| Current model consistency | Both state checks and matched interval |
Keep the conclusion tied to its question
The pricing weight comes from the stipulated price record; it does not estimate a real frequency. This explanation can be precise without making that unsupported forecast claim. The prompt is original practice, not a named employer’s interview report.