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Payback recovery and project value

Recovering an initial amount and creating value under a discount model are different questions.

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Identify the recovery question

For −1,000 followed by three 400 receipts, cumulative raw cash reaches −600, −200 and +200 at the period ends. Raw recovery first occurs at the end of period three. A fractional 2.5 uses a within-period interpolation assumption.

Read the present-value result

At 10%, the same entered horizon has NPV -5.259204, and discounted recovery is not reached. Raw recovery within the horizon therefore does not imply positive NPV at that rate.

Include amounts beyond a recovery date

Adding another 400 at period four changes full-horizon NPV to 267.946179, while the first raw recovery remains period three. A metric that stops its accounting at recovery does not describe the effect of all later flows.

Two schedules sharing first raw recovery
ScheduleRaw recovery endNPV at 10%
Three receipts of 4003−5.259204
Four receipts of 4003267.946179

Use both summaries within their definitions

Recovery timing can summarize one feature of a forecast. It is not an automatic risk classification or substitute for the complete discounted schedule. Nonconventional later outflows also require attention beyond the simple monotone-receipt recovery model.

Further references