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Locate the percentile threshold
At 95% confidence the standard normal quantile is approximately 1.644854. Multiplying dispersion by this coefficient and adding mean loss gives the normal-model VaR threshold.
Average the selected upper tail
At the same confidence, the upper-tail mean multiplier is approximately 2.062713. It exceeds the threshold because it averages losses above that threshold rather than locating the cumulative crossing.
Compare supported confidence levels
| Confidence | Quantile z | Tail-mean multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| 95% | 1.644854 | 2.062713 |
| 97.5% | 1.959964 | 2.337803 |
| 99% | 2.326348 | 2.665214 |
Keep the coefficients dimensionless
Both coefficients multiply a standard deviation in loss units. Neither is a currency amount, a probability percentage or the whole-model mean. At zero dispersion they do not create a spread around the constant loss.