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Two-state risk-neutral weight and claim value

For a compatible two-state model, q=(S0R−Sd)/(Su−Sd) and claim value is [qHu+(1−q)Hd]/R.

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Define R for exactly the modeled interval

R=1+r is the positive risk-free factor from today to the claim expiry. An annual quotation is not automatically the rate for a shorter period. Convert it on an explicit convention before using this equation.

Match the underlying value

qSu+(1−q)Sd=S0R. Solving gives the pricing weight; the selected interior setup requires Sd<S0R<Su.

q=S0R−SdSu−Sd,H0=qHu+(1−q)HdRq=\frac{S_0R-S_d}{S_u-S_d},\qquad H_0=\frac{qH_u+(1-q)H_d}{R}

The weights price this model and do not estimate an observed state frequency.

Keep weighting and discounting separate

The original call amounts 30/0 and q=0.5 give a weighted expiry amount 15. Dividing by R=1.05 gives 14.285714 today. Omitting the final division reports a future weighted amount as a current price.

Keep contract assumptions compatible

The introductory application is one-period European expiry payoff with no underlying income and compatible frictionless financing. It does not accept an arbitrary actual-state probability as a substitute for q.

Further references