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Normal period dependence and aggregation practice

These original questions keep additive period losses distinct from a universal horizon shortcut.

Use stated constructions

The first two questions use five independent identically distributed normal period losses with mean 2 and dispersion 10. The aggregate is an arithmetic sum. The final question distinguishes separate normal marginals from a joint normal law.

Retain the supplied assumptions

No empirical independence or official syllabus coverage is implied. Explain which model condition justifies a formula before applying its arithmetic.

Try the questions

What is the mean of the five-period independent sum?

  • A.

    10

  • B.

    2√5

  • C.

    2

Answer and explanation

Answer: A

The mean scales with the number of additive periods.

A

Means add: 5×2.

B

This incorrectly scales the mean like dispersion.

C

This omits the other periods.

What is the sum’s standard deviation under the stated independence?

  • A.

    10√5

  • B.

    50

  • C.

    500

Answer and explanation

Answer: A

The aggregate variance is 5×100.

A

Independent variances add before taking the square root.

B

This fits the separately stated perfect shared-shock construction.

C

This mixes variance and standard deviation units.

Each component marginal is normal. Does that alone establish a normal sum?

  • A.

    Yes, regardless of dependence

  • B.

    No; the joint law still matters

  • C.

    Yes if covariance is zero

Answer and explanation

Answer: B

X and SX provide a counterexample with normal marginals and zero covariance.

A

The original sign construction creates a nonnormal sum.

B

Joint normality is an additional sufficient condition.

C

Zero covariance does not generally establish independence or joint normality.

Further references