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Estimating a price change with duration and convexity

With modified duration 5, convexity 40 and a yield increase of 100 basis points, the two-term estimate is a 4.8% price decline.

Convert the yield move

One hundred basis points is one percentage point, or 0.01 in decimal yield. The formula requires 0.01, not 100 and not 1. Keep the positive sign because this scenario raises the yield.

Calculate the two terms

The duration term is −5 × 0.01 = −0.05. The convexity term is one-half × 40 × 0.01² = 0.002. Adding gives −0.048, or −4.8%. The curvature correction is positive here because convexity is positive and the yield change is squared.

The two-term calculation
TermFractional price changePercentage price change
Duration−0.05−5.0%
Convexity+0.002+0.2%
Combined−0.048−4.8%

Reverse the yield move

For a 100-basis-point decline, the duration term becomes +0.05 while the convexity term remains +0.002. The estimated gain is 5.2%. These are local approximations using supplied sensitivity measures, not exact prices of an identified security. Use cash-flow repricing when the full bond inputs are available.

Further references