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Equal-weight loss ranks and tail counts

Twenty equal-weight losses 1 through 20 give lower 95% quantile 19 and ES 20.

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Define the original equal-weight sample

The losses 1, 2, …, 20 are hypothetical, each with probability 1/20=5%. They have already been ordered from smallest to largest. No interpolation, historical repricing or real market source is implied.

Select the lower cumulative quantile

At c=95%, rank ceil(20×0.95)=19 gives VaR 19. The selected worst 5% consists only of loss 20, so ES is 20. At c=90%, rank 18 gives VaR 18 and the worst 10% contains losses 19 and 20, averaging 19.5.

Handle a non-integer tail count

At 92.5% confidence, the selected tail is 7.5%: all 5% at loss 20 and 2.5% from loss 19. ES=(0.05×20+0.025×19)/0.075=19.666667 approximately. Rounding the tail to one or two whole observations would use the wrong mass.

Keep other percentile estimators separate

A statistical package may interpolate between sorted values. Its result can differ from this lower empirical quantile without indicating an arithmetic failure. State the estimator and observation weights before comparing reported percentiles.

Further references