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Read the original teaching model
The public tool’s default −10/0/10/50 outcomes and 30/40/25/5 percent probabilities are stipulated. They let readers verify quantiles and tail allocation. They are not empirical probabilities for a named portfolio.
Retain evidence for an estimate
| Status | Evidence needed |
|---|---|
| Declared teaching scenario | Explicit losses and probabilities |
| Historical empirical estimate | Dates, observations, weighting and quantile rule |
| Simulation estimate | Distribution, exposures, model and generated outcomes |
| Stress scenario | Specified adverse factor changes and repricing basis |
Identify what arithmetic checks establish
Probabilities summing to one and an internally consistent allocation prove that the selected finite-model calculation can be performed. They do not validate missing observations, regime stability, pricing assumptions or future calibration.
Keep unresolved data questions visible
Record source, horizon, return/loss conversion, estimator and unresolved limitations beside the result. If an estimate is unavailable, label the numbers as assumptions rather than supplying invented historical dates.