Skip to content

Return-fit quality and statistical inference

A fit score and residual identities do not on their own supply a significance test or prediction interval.

On this page

Read what the calculator computes

The tool minimises squared residuals for supplied equal-weight paired returns and reports slope, intercept, residual scale and defined fit measures. Those outputs summarise the entered sample.

Retain additional conditions

Different analytical tasks
TaskRequired evidence
Descriptive fitMatched observations and fitting criterion
Coefficient inferenceError assumptions, sampling and uncertainty calculation
Prediction intervalA specified X, model assumptions and prediction uncertainty
Causal interpretationA supported causal design, not just correlation

Keep the five-period example scoped

Its R²≈97.350993% and zero residual identities do not establish normal independent disturbances. Five hypothetical points also do not provide a measured historical market distribution.

Choose the actual follow-up

Use residual and scatter views to identify questions worth reviewing. A diagnostic picture can reveal a pattern but cannot by itself certify every statistical assumption. Retain source definitions and the inferential method if the task goes beyond fitting.

Further references