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Tail-risk parameter and allocation checklist

A usable tail-risk record preserves the loss definition and the selected-tail denominator.

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Check the input identity

Name the common horizon, unit, sign, exposure basis and estimation status. Ensure matched loss/probability records, a valid total and a supported joint model if combining components.

Check the threshold calculation

Order losses ascending and add probabilities for identical amounts. Apply the stated cumulative rule, keeping equality at a discrete boundary when the lower quantile is used. Retain the sample convention when comparing estimates.

Reconcile inclusion and average

Review checks
LayerQuestion
MassDoes the tail sum to 1−confidence?
BoundsIs each inclusion within available probability?
OrderingWere worse losses selected first?
AverageWas selected weighted loss divided by selected mass?
EventsWere strict and inclusive exceedance kept distinct?
ScopeWere forecasts, maximums and model summaries separated?

Choose a correction tied to the error

A unit mismatch calls for a new input record; a boundary error calls for a cumulative/allocation reconstruction; a dependence gap calls for a joint model. Repeating the same calculation cannot restore missing evidence.

Further references