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Zero linear slope with a curved return pattern

A symmetric original record can have slope zero and R² zero while its asset values follow a curved pattern.

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State the original displayed-number construction

Use benchmark percentage numbers −2/−1/0/1/2 and asset percentage numbers 4/1/0/1/4. In this hypothetical record, each asset percentage number is the square of the benchmark percentage number. This is a supplied data construction, not a financial return law.

Calculate the straight-line summary

Benchmark mean is zero and asset mean 2%. The centered cross-product is zero by symmetry, so the fitted slope is zero and intercept 2%. R² is zero for this linear fit.

Inspect the remaining shape

Original curved pattern
Benchmark (%)Asset (%)Residual (percentage points)
−242
−11−1
00−2
11−1
242

Keep absence of a linear fit separate

The residuals reveal a curved pattern even though the linear score is zero. Zero slope or correlation does not generally establish independence or absence of every relationship. This construction also does not prove a causal effect.

Further references